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What people were betting on, Wednesday, November 11, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 27% | – |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 31% | – |
| Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...? Leading on Polymarket: November 12 (11:59 PM ET), >99% | +7 pts |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 11, >99% | – |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 17% | – |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 46% | +1 pt |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 64% | −2 pts |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2027, 92% | +55 pts |
| Anthropic IPO by __? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, 98% | – |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Chiang Wan-an, 66% | – |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Leading on Polymarket: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?, 14% | +1 pt |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 9% chance | +1 pt |
| Pete Hegseth impeached by...? Leading on Polymarket: June 30, 2027, 71% | +2 pts |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...? Leading on Polymarket: November 30, 5% | −3 pts |
| Russia x Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 31% | −8 pts |
| Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2027, 46% | +5 pts |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? Leading on Polymarket: Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 88% | −5 pts |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Polymarket traders give this a 1% chance | – |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-10 · 11-09 · 11-08 · 11-07 · 11-06 · 11-05 · 11-04 · 11-03 · 11-02 · 11-01
Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds