2026 midterms · 3 days to go
Kalshi vs Polymarket election odds 2026
Who the two biggest prediction markets think will win the Senate, the House and every Senate race, side by side. Live prices, updated 5 minutes ago.
Senate control
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 72% | 73% |
| Republicans | 30% | 29% |
Cheapest way to own both outcomes: 100¢ for $1, before fees.
House control
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | 93% | 95% |
| Republicans | 7% | 6% |
Cheapest way to own both outcomes: 99¢ for $1, before fees.
Every Senate race
Closest races first. K = Kalshi, P = Polymarket: the price to buy that side, which works as the market's odds (66% = 66¢ for a $1 payout). The small number is how many points higher Polymarket is.
| Race | Democrat |
|---|---|
| Kansas Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R) | K 51% P 53%+2 |
| Iowa Josh Turek (D) vs Ashley Hinson (R) | K 44% P 43%-1 |
| Maine Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R) | K 69% P 68%-1 |
| Texas James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R) | K 70% P 71%+1 |
| Ohio Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R) | K 71% P 74%+3 |
| South Carolina Annie Andrews (D) vs Darline Graham Nordone (R) | K 28% P 26%-2 |
| Michigan Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R) | K 77% P 82%+5 |
| Florida Angie Nixon (D) vs Ashley Moody (R) | K 12% P 10%-2 |
| Mississippi Scott Colom (D) vs Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | K 12% P 12% |
| Minnesota Peggy Flanagan (D) vs Michele Tafoya (R) | K 91% P 93%+2 |
| New Hampshire Chris Pappas (D) vs John E. Sununu (R) | K 93% P 94%+1 |
| Arkansas Hallie Shoffner (D) vs Tom Cotton (R) | K 6% P 4%-1 |
| Kentucky Charles Booker (D) vs Andy Barr (R) | K 4% P 2%-2 |
| Georgia Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R) | K 97% P 98%+1 |
| North Carolina Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R) | K 97% P 98%+1 |
| Tennessee Marquita Bradshaw (D) vs Bill Hagerty (R) | K 3% P 2%-1 |
| Oklahoma N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D) vs Kevin Hern (R) | K 2% P 1%-1 |
| Illinois Juliana Stratton (D) vs Don Tracy (R) | K 98% P 99%+1 |
| West Virginia Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) vs Shelley Moore Capito (R) | K 2% P 3% |
| New Jersey Cory Booker (D) vs Justin Murphy (R) | K 98% P 99%+1 |
| Wyoming James W. Byrd (D) vs Harriet Hageman (R) | K 2% P 1%-1 |
| Colorado John Hickenlooper (D) vs Mark Baisley (R) | K 99% P 100%+1 |
| Massachusetts Ed Markey (D) vs John Deaton (R) | K 99% P 100%+1 |
| Rhode Island Jack Reed (D) vs Raymond McKay (R) | K 99% P 100%+1 |
| Delaware Chris Coons (D) vs Michael Katz (R) | K 99% P 99%+1 |
| New Mexico Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Larry Marker (R) | K 99% P 100%+1 |
| Virginia Mark Warner (D) vs Bert Mizusawa (R) | K 99% P 99% |
| Montana Alani Bankhead (D) vs Kurt Alme (R) | K 1% P 0%-1 |
| Oregon Jeff Merkley (D) vs David Brock Smith (R) | K 99% P 99% |
| South Dakota Julian Beaudion (D) vs Mike Rounds (R) | K 1% P 0% |
| Nebraska Cindy Burbank (D) vs Pete Ricketts (R) | K 0% P 0% |
| Idaho David Roth (D) vs Jim Risch (R) | K 0% P 0% |
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Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different odds?
They're separate exchanges with different traders, fees and rules. Polymarket is crypto-based and global; Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that trades in dollars. Money can't flow freely between them, so the same race can sit a few points apart for days.
They don't settle the same way
Kalshi's race markets pay on which party's candidate is sworn in (early 2027) and its control markets on which party wins control; Polymarket's pay on the projected winner and settle much sooner. A recount, a court fight, a party switch or an independent caucusing with a party can make the two settle differently, and money on Kalshi stays tied up until it settles. That's why a gap here isn't free money. Read the risks before trading.
Which is more accurate?
Neither is right by default. Both are prices set by people betting real money, and when they disagree, at least one is off. Comparing them shows where traders disagree, which is often where the news is.
See every market we track on both sites at Kalshi vs Polymarket odds. Best ask only, before fees. Prices can change at any moment. Not financial advice. ArbTrader isn't affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.