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What people were betting on, Saturday, November 7, 2026

The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.

MarketTraded, 24hLead, 24h
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 27%
$1M–
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 31%
$399K–
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 17%
$795K–
US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
Leading on Polymarket: November 5, >99%
$110K–
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Leading on Polymarket: November 11, >99%
$439K–
Next French Presidential Election
Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 46%
$1.4M+1 pt
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Leading on Polymarket: Chiang Wan-an, 66%
$205K–
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Leading on Polymarket: Ulf Kristersson, 54%
$108K+1 pt
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Leading on Polymarket: October 31, >99%
$471K–
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Leading on Polymarket: Pete Hegseth, 39%
$132K+5 pts
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 64%
$633K−2 pts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Polymarket traders give this a 8% chance
$281K–
Anthropic IPO by __?
Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, 98%
$157K–
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Leading on Polymarket: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?, 14%
$187K+1 pt
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2%
$406K–
Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...?
Leading on Polymarket: November 12 (11:59 PM ET), >99%
$1.3M+7 pts
Next Press Secretary announced by...?
Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 72%
$143K–
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-06 · 11-05 · 11-04 · 11-03 · 11-02 · 11-01

Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds