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What people were betting on, Thursday, November 5, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 31% | – |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 27% | – |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 17% | – |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2% | – |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: October 31, >99% | – |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 11, >99% | – |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 8% chance | – |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 46% | +1 pt |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 64% | −2 pts |
| US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 5, >99% | – |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Leading on Polymarket: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?, 14% | +1 pt |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Leading on Polymarket: Trump out as President before 2027?, 3% | – |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Chiang Wan-an, 66% | – |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 14% | −1 pt |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? Leading on Polymarket: June 30, 2027, 9% | −1 pt |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by...? Leading on Polymarket: November 30, 5% | −3 pts |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-04 · 11-03 · 11-02 · 11-01
Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds