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What people were betting on, Monday, November 2, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map) Leading on Polymarket: None, 34% | +8 pts |
| Will 1win launch a token by ___? Leading on Polymarket: October 31, 2026, >99% | – |
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Leading on Polymarket: Democrats Sweep, 76% | +5 pts |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Leading on Polymarket: Democratic Party, 95% | – |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 16% | – |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 40% | – |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: James Talarico (D), 73% | +1 pt |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed (D), 79% | – |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 1, >99% | – |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: October 31, 68% | −31 pts |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Leading on Polymarket: Democratic Party, 76% | +3 pts |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: JD Vance, 19% | – |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 63% | −1 pt |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 36% | −2 pts |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-01
Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds