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What people were betting on, Tuesday, November 3, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms Leading on Polymarket: Democrats Sweep, 76% | +5 pts |
| Which party will win the House in 2026? Leading on Polymarket: Democratic Party, 95% | – |
| Which party will win the Senate in 2026? Leading on Polymarket: Democratic Party, 76% | +4 pts |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: JD Vance, 17% | −2 pts |
| Texas Senate Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: James Talarico (D), 75% | +1 pt |
| Michigan Senate Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Abdul El-Sayed (D), 81% | +2 pts |
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 2, >99% | +50 pts |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 19% | +4 pts |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 40% | – |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 63% | – |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 1, >99% | – |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 35% | – |
| Texas Governor Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Greg Abbott (R), 60% | +2 pts |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 19% chance | +1 pt |
| Putin out as President of Russia by...? Leading on Polymarket: June 30, 2027, 10% | – |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? Leading on Polymarket: SpaceX, 64% | +2 pts |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 34% | −5 pts |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 5% chance | – |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, 44% | +1 pt |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 3% | – |
| Iran leadership change by...? Leading on Polymarket: June 30, 2027, 28% | +1 pt |
| Taipei Mayor Election Winner Leading on Polymarket: Chiang Wan-an, 68% | +2 pts |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Leading on Polymarket: Trump out as President before 2027?, 4% | – |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds