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What people were betting on, Monday, November 9, 2026
The busiest prediction markets on Polymarket that day, leaving out single games and short crypto price bets. Each page shows the odds, how they moved and, where the same market is on Kalshi, both prices side by side.
| Market | Lead, 24h |
|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? Leading on Polymarket: November 11, >99% | – |
| Next French Presidential Election Leading on Polymarket: Marine Le Pen, 46% | +1 pt |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? Leading on Polymarket: March 31, 64% | −2 pts |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Polymarket traders give this a 8% chance | – |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 27% | – |
| Iran leadership change by...? Leading on Polymarket: June 30, 2027, 23% | −1 pt |
| Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 Leading on Polymarket: J.D. Vance, 31% | – |
| Venezuela leader end of 2026? Leading on Polymarket: Nicolás Maduro, 94% | – |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 83% | +2 pts |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 Leading on Polymarket: Jon Ossoff, 17% | – |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Leading on Polymarket: Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?, 14% | +1 pt |
| NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner Leading on Polymarket: CJ Carr, 28% | −5 pts |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2% | – |
| Kai Cenat finishes GTA marathon by...? Leading on Polymarket: November 12 (11:59 PM ET), >99% | +7 pts |
| Next Prime Minister of Spain? Leading on Polymarket: Alberto Núñez Feijóo, 88% | −5 pts |
| Trump out as President before 2027? Leading on Polymarket: Trump out as President before 2027?, 3% | – |
| Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2027, 88% | +51 pts |
| Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, 40% | −10 pts |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 14% | −1 pt |
| Anthropic IPO by __? Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 2026, 98% | – |
See the big bets as they land. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker shows every large bet on Kalshi and Polymarket the moment it's placed, and the AI Analyst researches any market in about a minute.
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Earlier days: 11-08 · 11-07 · 11-06 · 11-05 · 11-04 · 11-03 · 11-02 · 11-01
Odds are the market's last traded price shown as a chance; they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Source: Polymarket. Game odds · Election odds