Trending market · updated Nov 12, 12:48 AM ET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
Leading on Polymarket: December 31, 83%. $212K traded in the last 24 hours, and it's set to close around December 31, 2026.
| Outcome | Polymarket | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 83% | +2 pts |
| November 30 | 67% | −1 pt |
| November 22 | 64% | +1 pt |
| November 15 | 52% | +3 pts |
| November 8 | 30% | +4 pts |
Day by day
| Date | Odds that day |
|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | December 31 83% · November 30 67% · November 22 64% · November 15 52% |
| 2026-11-11 | December 31 83% · November 30 69% · November 22 63% · November 15 54% |
| 2026-11-10 | December 31 81% · November 30 69% · November 22 60% · November 15 48% |
| 2026-11-09 | December 31 79% · November 30 62% · November 22 53% · November 15 44% |
| 2026-11-08 | December 31 79% · November 30 56% · November 22 51% · November 15 40% |
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Odds are each market's last price shown as a chance (Kalshi: its current asking price), and they change all the time. Not a prediction and not financial advice. Sources: Polymarket. All trending markets