Guide
Polymarket whale tracker: following the biggest bets
Every Polymarket trade is public, so the biggest bets can be seen the moment they're placed. The hard part isn't finding them. It's telling a real bet from a hedge, a market maker or someone flipping in and out. Here's how to read them, and what to watch out for before you follow one.
Why Polymarket whales are visible
Polymarket runs on the Polygon blockchain. Every trade is recorded with the wallet that made it, and each trader has a public profile with their open positions and profit. Names are usernames or wallet addresses, not real identities, but you can see what a wallet has bet on and how it has done over time.
That's what makes Polymarket different from a sportsbook, where nobody can see who bet what. It's also what makes whale tracking useful: you can check a big bettor's track record before you take their trade seriously.
What counts as a whale?
There's no official line. ArbTrader's Whale Tracker starts at $2,000 in a single trade and lets you filter up to $5,000, $10,000, $25,000 or $50,000. On a small market, $2,000 can move the price. On a big election or Fed market, it barely registers.
Size alone means less than size compared with the trader. A $20,000 bet from someone who usually bets $500 says more than a $50,000 bet from someone who bets $50,000 every day. The tracker shows each trade next to that trader's usual size for that reason.
Not every big trade is a bet
A lot of large trades aren't anyone's opinion. Before you read meaning into one, check whether it's one of these:
| What it looks like | What it usually is |
|---|---|
| Bought, then sold within minutes | A flip: trading the price, not betting on the result. |
| Holds both YES and NO | A hedge, or a market maker providing both sides. |
| Bought every outcome of one event | A bundle, often an arbitrage trade that pays the same whoever wins. |
| Big buy on Polymarket, opposite side on Kalshi | Often a cross-market hedge. You only see half of it. |
ArbTrader's tracker checks each whale's holdings and leaves out flips, hedges, bundles and anyone who was out again within the hour. Trades the whale held and later closed stay on the list, marked not holding.
How to read a whale trade
- Check the price they paid against the price now. If a whale bought YES at 40¢ and it's 55¢ now, the move has already happened. You'd be paying more for the same bet.
- Check whether they still hold it. A whale who sold an hour later wasn't making a long-term call.
- Check their record. A wallet with a long history of profitable bets in politics means more on a politics market than a new wallet does.
- Check when it resolves. A bet that settles tonight and one that settles next year are very different uses of money.
Should you copy whales?
Following a whale is a bet, not a sure thing. Whales lose, often. A few things work against copiers in particular:
- You're late. Their buy can push the price up before you get in, so you pay more for the same outcome.
- You don't know their reason. The trade might hedge something you can't see.
- Size changes everything. A whale can afford to be wrong on one market. Copy small, and decide your exit before you buy.
If you do copy, set a stop-loss and a take-profit before you buy, so the decision isn't made in the moment.
ArbTrader's Whale Tracker
Free: a sample of recent big buys of $10,000 or more, with the market, the side, the price paid and the odds now.
Quant: every big Polymarket and Kalshi trade within about 30 seconds, filters for size, odds and resolution date, each whale's usual bet size and other holdings, a flag when a whale trade lands on a spread you can take, and optional copying with a stop-loss, a take-profit and a sell when the whale sells.
Not financial advice. ArbTrader isn't affiliated with Polymarket or Kalshi.
Common questions
What is a Polymarket whale tracker?
A tool that pulls the largest Polymarket trades out of the public trade feed and shows them as they happen, usually with the trader's history and whether they still hold the position.
Can you see who a Polymarket whale is?
You can see their username or wallet address, their open positions and their record. You can't see their real identity.
Is following Polymarket whales profitable?
Sometimes, often not. Whales lose too, you usually buy at a worse price than they did, and some big trades are hedges rather than bets. Treat a whale trade as a lead to research, not a signal to copy.
How big is a whale trade?
There's no official size. ArbTrader's tracker starts at $2,000 in a single trade, with filters up to $50,000.
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