Guide
Kalshi whale tracker: spotting big trades on Kalshi
Big trades happen on Kalshi every day, on elections, the Fed, sports and the weather. Unlike Polymarket, Kalshi doesn't show who made them. Here's what you can see, what a large trade can tell you, and what it can't.
Kalshi trades are public, but anonymous
Kalshi is a US exchange regulated by the CFTC. It publishes each market's trades through its public data: the price, the number of contracts, the side and the time. It doesn't publish the account behind a trade.
So on Kalshi, whale tracking is about size and timing. You can see that someone just bought $15,000 of NO at 71¢. You can't see who they are, what else they hold, or how good their past bets were.
Kalshi vs Polymarket whale tracking
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Big trades visible | Yes | Yes |
| Who made the trade | No | Username or wallet |
| Their track record | No | Yes, public profile |
| What else they hold | No | Yes |
That's why a big Kalshi trade is a weaker signal on its own. It's most useful next to the price: did the market move after it, and did more money follow? See the Polymarket whale tracker guide for reading wallets.
What a big Kalshi trade can mean
- A real view. Someone with money behind an opinion, sometimes early on news.
- One half of a hedge. Traders often hold the opposite side on Polymarket or another app. On Kalshi you only see one leg.
- A market maker. Firms quote both sides all day. Some big fills are just them doing their job.
- Closing a position. A big trade can be someone getting out, not getting in.
Because you can't check the trader, the useful questions are about the market: is the price still near what they paid, and is the trade big for this market? $10,000 on a daily weather market is huge. On a presidential market it's routine.
Before you follow one
- Check the price now. If it already moved, the easy part is gone.
- Count fees. Kalshi charges a fee on each order, highest near 50¢. See Kalshi fees explained.
- Go small. Following a big trade is a bet, not a sure thing.
ArbTrader's Whale Tracker on Kalshi
ArbTrader shows big Kalshi trades from $2,000 up, next to big Polymarket trades, with the side, the price paid, the odds now and when the market resolves.
Free: a sample of recent big buys of $10,000 or more. Quant: every big trade within about 30 seconds, filters for size, odds and resolution date, and a flag when a whale trade lands on a spread you can take.
Not financial advice. ArbTrader isn't affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
Common questions
Can you see who made a trade on Kalshi?
No. Kalshi publishes the price, size, side and time of trades, but not the account that made them.
How do I find big trades on Kalshi?
Kalshi's public market data lists each market's recent trades. A whale tracker like ArbTrader's watches that feed and shows only the large ones, as they happen.
Is a big Kalshi trade a good signal?
On its own, a weak one. It might be a hedge, a market maker, or someone closing a position. Check whether the price has already moved and how big the trade is for that market.
Does ArbTrader track Kalshi whales for free?
The free plan shows a sample of recent big buys of $10,000 or more. Quant shows every big trade live.
Watch the biggest Kalshi and Polymarket bets as they land, free.
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