Will Dan Sullivan win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?: Dan Sullivan: Kalshi vs Polymarket odds

The price to buy each side on each site, updated 1 minute ago. Kalshi closes this market on November 3, 2027.

Side	Kalshi	Polymarket
Yes	31¢	28¢
No	70¢	73¢

A price of 47¢ means the market puts it at about 47%; each contract pays $1 if it happens. Green is the cheaper site for that side. Best ask only, before fees.

Buying No on Kalshi at 70¢ and Yes on Polymarket at 28¢ costs 98¢ for a $1 payout whoever wins, before fees. Whether that still pays after Kalshi's fee, at the size actually for sale, is what ArbTrader checks live.
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On the sites: Kalshi · Polymarket · Polymarket calls it “Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?”

Why are Kalshi and Polymarket prices different?

They're separate exchanges with different traders, fees and rules, so the same question can trade at different prices. When buying opposite sides on the two sites costs less than $1 after fees, you can lock in the difference whoever wins, as long as both sites settle the question the same way. Read the step-by-step guide or how Kalshi vs Polymarket arbitrage works.

We match markets across the two sites by title, dates and rules; check both sites' rules before trading. Prices can change at any moment. Not financial advice. ArbTrader isn't affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.